Mid-week, I broke from finishing a report on evaluation audits of EU spending programmes to entertain a group of grouse shootists (bankers) who couldn't help but dispense with the etiquette of not talking shop. Strong etiquette rules prevail in grouse shooting. These are designed to encourage prudential risk-taking; aerial shooting is a dangerous sport, though safer than fox-hunting. Most rules are common-sense ground rules that apply to shooting of any type, such as keep the safety on or barrels 'broken' while walking and never point it outside your field of vision or at another human. The season begins on the Glorious 12th (August) and ends 10th December. I was informed that the game-bird season is a classic Kress turning point in the markets that Kress said was all Fibinoacci sequence as in a deck of cards; 52 cards (weeks), four suits (seasons), 13 cards in a suit (weeks in a season), numbers begin with two (weekly GDP and typical daily and weekly market shake, the basic prime, up to 10, a decade). The width of a conventional deck is 5/8 of the length (Fibonacci ratio and the 38% maximum to be expected in market rises and falls), counterpart to the 62% odd infinitum ratio of shots on target, birds bagged versus birds winged or missed i.e. Fibonacci numerology is evident in various aspects of life and investment banking. Whenever a bear market or economic downturn, the blame game is futile exercise for “it's all in the deck.”
On the glorious twelth, start of Q2 results season (equity funds outperform bell-weather indices, and inflation, cash reserve ratio and repo rates spike, and oil turns south, and banking stocks, credit & debt markets, fall of a cliff. By December 10th, just as the Christmas office party season kicks off, markets have recovered, we are awash with banking risk conferences, and portfolios are on hold trying to end the year in positive bonus-significant territory. Bang thump bang, the stirrup bottles are emptied and the assembling wax jackets conclude all such theories to be twaddle. When times are tough it is investment bankers' etiquette to celebrate as if they've all outperformed the rest and there's always tomorrow. Tomorrow (or tonight) we'll here if the TARPaulin has been pulled and secured resolutely over the toxic heap of the world's credit backed securities, and then we can look forward with relish to the Autumn Season, the balls, dinner parties, theatre nights and large charity events! If TARP is diluted, over-caveated with restrictions on bonus-pay, or fails to pass, I think I'll cancel grouse-breeding for next season and put my money into raptors.